Andre Smit's Real Estate Round-up

Hi Folks,

 

So the Bank of Canada once again held it's policy rate at 2.25% The Governor, however stated that they are keenly watching our turbulent economy, as well as the inflation rate and will then act accordingly in 2026. The consensus among the majority of banking economists, is that the bank will not increase this rate this year.

 

There is no doubt that there are many buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to jump into the market! I will address this phenomenon later, when I look at the market prospects for 2026.

 

The actual sales to new listings ratio has moved down drastically from 70% in December, 2025 to 28.6% in January, 2026, putting us currently firmly back into buyers' market territory. This is mainly due to total new listings increasing by a whopping 103% compared to December last year, while sales decreased by only 16.6%!

According to the Toronto Real Estate Board, (the largest in Canada), compared to January last year, total new listings were down by 13%, while total actual physical sales were down by 20%. This resulted in the average price for all homes, decreasing by 6.5% from the same month, the year before. The average days that listings spent on the market, before selling, has increased by 22% to 45 days.

 

Average detached house prices have decreased by 7.2%, compared to January, 2025. The number of total new listings, decreased by 10% for the same period, while physical sales decreased by 14.4%. The average days that listings spent on the market, before selling, has increased from 35 days to 42 days, or 20%, for the same period.

 

Condominium apartment average prices decreased by 9.8% over the same month, with physical sales being down 26.3% and new listings down by 18.7%. The average days that listings spent on the market, before selling, has increased from 44 days to 51 days, or 16%, for the same period.

 

The Toronto Real Estate Board, (TREB), have just released their real estate statistics for 2025. TREB is the biggest real estate board in the GTA, and therefore, their results normally mirror those of the other smaller boards. This month, I will take some time to analyze their annual statistics.

 

In 2025, the total number of transactions decreased by 11.2% from the previous year and new listings were up by 10% for the same period, which resulted in the average price for all transactions decreasing by 4.7% for the year. This resulted in the average days on market, before selling, increasing by 20%, from 25 days to 30 days, last year, compared to the year before.

 

The average property price decrease %s, 2025 vs 2024, for each housing category, were as follows:

 

Detached Homes – 5.9%

Semi-Detached Homes – 11.4%

Freehold Townhouses – 6%

Condo Apartments – 7.3%

 

However, on average, 2025 was a solid buyers' market with the ratio of sales to new listings being 33%.

 

So, what are we expecting for 2026?

 

As stated earlier, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.25% for the year.

 

Affordability and economic uncertainty remain central issues as the population is expected to continue to grow in the GTA.

 

There is definitely pent up demand and the vast majority of these buyers could enter the market in early Spring. Therefore, total unit home sales are expected to increase from 62,400 to between 63,000 and 70,000 for the year. The current high inventory of listings is expected to persist for at least the first 6 months of the year. This is likely to further decrease overall average prices by between 5 and 9% during this period.

 

However, if consumer confidence improves in the second half of the year, increased sales and tighter market conditions could result in a leveling off in selling prices, according to TREB.

 

The average price for all home sales in 2026, is expected to be between $1 million and $1.03 million, compared to the 2025 average price of $1.068 million.

 

It is also interesting to note that first time buyers are likely to account for 45% of all home buyers. This is due to the banks offering lower promotional mortgage interest rates in an effort to gain market share in this valuable market segment.

 

If you are contemplating selling your home this year, now is the time to ensure that it is ready for the increased market activity expected in the Spring. Contractors are normally not very busy at this time of the year, so, now is the ideal time to negotiate great prices on any refurbishing work required. I am also available to do a walk through your home, in order to advise you regarding any work which needs to be done, in order to maximize your return on your investment, when your home is placed on the market.

 

I am currently compiling my portfolio of great homes to market in the next 2-3 months, and would be privileged to include yours. Remember the old adage: “The early bird catches the worm.” I just want to ensure that, as my clients, you catch the best, juicy worm possible!

 

SMIT'S TIP OF THE MONTH:

 

Inspect your roof for winter damage. Try using binoculars to look for loose,

broken or missing shingles. Pay special attention to valleys, as these areas

normally deteriorate at an accelerated rate. In some instances, patching badly

worn areas, may extend your roof life.

 

If you, your friends or family have any questions regarding real estate, or indeed, require the services of a great realtor, please do not hesitate to call me at 416-898-2852, at anytime!

 

Until next month,

 

Stay warm and safe!

 

Kind regards,

 

André